Abstract: The primary purpose of the paper is to set up a macroeconomic model depicting the domestic inflation dynamics of a conflict economy impeded by a parallel market for foreign exchange as well as an internal political conflict. To investigate the sensitivity of domestic inflation to macro variables using a time-varying coefficient estimation approach employed on monthly data from the Sudan that was collected from January 2008 to December 2013. While government spending is the main driver of domestic inflation, the increasing role of a parallel market for foreign exchange and imported inflation on domestic inflation reveal an increasing sensitivity of Sudan’s economy to external shocks. Significantly, the estimate of the domestic inflation rate predicted by the model is about 22% above the officially-announced inflation rate. To manage inflation the rate of state currency production must be regulated and a more flexible official foreign exchange rate policy must be adopted.
Recent empirical studies in the field of education have revealed a significant shortage of teacher labor force worldwide, the scarcity of which is expected to yield negative results in making primary education accessible to all children, and in meeting the educational goals of the 21st century. The following study specifically focuses on the Arab region, and draws from data collected from different sources, primarily UNESCO and the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, to highlight the shortfall of teachers in the region. It then proposes possible reforms in educational policies, and initiatives to counter this growing challenge.
Beginning in the autumn of 2014, steep price drops in the world oil markets convulsed oil exporting countries. Some of the factors cited for this include the increased efficiency for the extraction of shale oil and the growth of sustainable energy resources as contributors to the world energy market. Yet the oil price drop, forecasted to last well into the coming years, also reflects deliberate actions taken by members of OPEC. This paper examines the non-conventional behavior recently displayed by the oil markets, where there has been a seeming disjunction between the supply of oil to the world and the prices bid for it.
The “shale technology revolution”, which began in the United States, will and already is having significant consequences for the GCC countries in terms of energy and geo-political issues. This paper attempts to consider what those consequences are and might be in the future. It begins by discussing the nature of this “shale technology revolution” and then considers how the impact on the United States has already begun to influence directly global energy markets and geo-politics. It also considers how the revolution may indirectly influence global energy markets and geo-politics in the future, and how these influences may have relevance for the GCC countries.
The GCC states have been attempting to effect the transition from oil-based "distributive" economies to knowledge-based economies. This paper, originally presented at our 2014 conference of Arab research centers, uses a variety of qualitative techniques to understand the obstacles that stand in the way of such a transformation, with a particular focus on the issues and challenges facing the educational sectors of these countries.
The Israeli assault on Gaza in July, 2014, was the latest in a series of attacks on the territory by the Israelis. Unlike the December, 2012 Israeli attack, however, "Operation Protective Edge" came at a time when the Arab regional order was torn about its response to the Arab Spring and, crucially, when Egypt was ruled by a military regime opposed to Hamas. Khaled Walid Mahmoud examines the factors behind the economic and political effort to rebuild the tiny Palestinian enclave.
With the emergence of what will be referred to in this paper as ‘Arab revolution states,’ new governments were faced with the challenge of creating a public spending policy able to meet the demands of their revolutions. ’ After presenting empirical results estimating the size of the middle class, the paper will show that it forms the majority of the population in these states, and will then go on to suggest that transition to democracy must rely on the preferences of this electorate in terms of imposing redistributive public spending policies. It presents a model whereby the middle class, as median voters, play a pivotal role in determining policy, and suggests how this will be the case.
Egypt's population began Ramadan 2014 under the specter of massive reductions in energy subsidies, on which most of the country had relied. With the new Egyptian cabinet indicating that the lifting of subsidies was needed in order to deal with a budget deficit, this paper analyzes the impact the new measures will have on the political future of the country.
This paper starts from the premise that economic inequality will be central to Arab policy makers concerns as they devise economic development strategies for the future. In this, the lessons from global experience may be useful in drawing implications for the Arab world.
This paper addresses the potential benefits and challenges facing the Gulf Monetary Union project. It also tries to highlight the strategic gains from structural changes in monetary policy strategies in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and incorporate them into gains and costs calculations. The paper also reveals the challenges